WTO: Raise the forecast for global trade growth in 2023! 1.7% increase

Recently, the latest "Global Trade Data and Prospects" report released by the World Trade Organization predicts that global trade in goods will grow by 1.7% in 2023, higher than the 1% forecast last October. The report also pointed out that due to multiple risks such as geopolitical tensions, high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and rising debt levels, the prospects for trade growth still face high uncertainties. The WTO calls on all governments to avoid trade fragmentation, maintain free flow of trade, strengthen multilateral trade cooperation, and jointly promote the recovery of the global economy.


The World Trade Organization stated that although the forecast for global economic growth has been slightly raised since last autumn, due to the continued crisis in Ukraine, high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and financial market uncertainty, Global trade growth will remain below average in 2023, with global merchandise trade volumes projected to grow by 1.7% this year. The figure was better than the 1.0 percent growth forecast half a year ago, but down one percentage point from trade growth in 2022 and below the average growth rate of 2.6 percent over the past 12 years, the WTO said. Global merchandise trade volumes will grow by 2.7% in 2022, down from a previous forecast of 3.5%, dragged down by a sharp drop in trade growth in the fourth quarter. At the same time, in 2022, the global merchandise trade volume will increase by 12% to US$25.3 trillion, and the global commercial service trade volume will increase by 15% to US$6.8 trillion. The report pointed out that the level of global inflation continued to rise last year, and the prices of bulk commodities and the exchange rate of the US dollar fluctuated sharply. Because strong price movements tend to distort trade volume statistics, more attention should be paid to trade volumes when forecasting trade. Economists at the World Trade Organization expect global GDP to grow 2.4 percent this year at market exchange rates, up from the 2.3 percent forecast in October last year but below the 2.7 percent average over the past 12 years. In addition, with the acceleration of economic expansion, global merchandise trade volume and GDP growth will pick up to 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2024. In terms of regions, the GDP growth rate in Europe in 2023 is expected to be raised by 0.7 percentage points, and that in Asia is lowered by 0.4 percentage points. In terms of exports, in 2023, North America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Asia, and Europe are expected to have the fastest growth rates of 3.3%, 2.8%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively; in terms of imports, the import volume of North America, South America, and Europe is expected to increase Contraction on weak domestic demand. The World Trade Organization stated that China's optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention measures is a "key factor" in raising the forecast of global trade growth in 2023. Relevant policy adjustments will help release consumer demand and promote international trade growth.

Source of article: Xinhua News Agency, etc.